Is MySpace Music Doomed? – A Guest Commentary
Last week guest blogger Bill Houghton of BroodingSavage.com called ad supported music unsustainable. (read here) Some readers strongly disagreed and I published a rebuttal from Marc Cohen of Ad Supported Music Central. (read here) Today Houghton returns to take on MySpace Music and the on-demand music sector.
Several companies, including LastFM and Imeem, are attempting to build advertising supported music services, and now MySpace has announced intentions to enter the fray. Lets be clear about one thing… these companies are not offering "free" music. They’re offering free on-demand radio. There’s a big distinction.
First, there are already niche players like Last.fm and Pandora, and I applaud these services – especially the service they provide to Independent artists. But music streamed from a website is not very compelling if I can’t take it with me, collect it, and keep it as part of my personal history. Streaming music through a website is not the type of innovation MySpace needs.
Second, it’s not certain that MySpace can even make this business work. News Corp can’t even sell it’s existing ad inventory on the site — falling short by about $4 billion. MySpace has an estimated 2.4 trillion ad impressions annually, but no ability to monetize them. A music service will simply add additional unsold inventory to that overstock. The result will be MySpace eating the cost of the music licenses, or the devaluation of their ad inventory to near $0. (Michael takes his argument further in a two part series on BroodingSavage.)
This is pretty much the same argument as before. The whole “Internet radio as a replacement for CD sales as a revenue stream” thing.
Again, I don’t see the issue. Is Internet radio really meant to supplant CD sales and digital downloads? Or is it meant to be another form of commercial radio?
If you just want to LISTEN to music, you can go to online streaming or commercial radio. If you want to “take it with you, collect it, and keep it as part of your personal history, buy the CD or digital download.
Or am I missing something?
There’s no added value for the listening audience to change from a service they’re happy with to a new and non-proven service. Part of the issue with the mySpace proportion is that they’re trying to muscle into the fray is that these other sites ALREADY have strong listenership.
If mySpace were to create or innovate a NEW model that was bigger, better, or an enhancement over what is already out there, then maybe they’d have a chance. As it is, there are too many services already online that are succeeding for them to stake a claim.
Iceman:
The thing I don’t think you’re getting is that while some people describe it as radio it’s a long way from internet radio.
The user experience is this: go to imeem.com or last.fm, search for anything you want to hear and hear it straight away. You can of course choose to have a more radio like experience, letting the site pick it for you or listening to playlists selected by other users.
It’s just like using iTunes with millions of tunes.
Vergel E:
You’re right myspace will have a hard time convincing users to come back for its music service. But they’ve been ruthless in their attempts to stop users going elsewhere: they’ve been blocking imeem players and widgets for the last year, and now we hear about this music plan it’s clear that they’ll censor users to limit damage to their business ventures.
Disclaimer – I can’t back this statement up with any facts whatsoever. However, as someone who had a Livejournal in its heyday, and who had a myspace early on and now has a facebook etc, I feel like Myspace is on its way out. It’s just a feeling, and of course it’s still huge, but I just think its prime has passed. It seems like people are talking more and more about Facebook, Flickr, and even Linkedin. I wonder if the era of Myspace celebrities is on its way out, too…