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Forecaster Says 2010 Is Digital Music Tipping Point

image from www.emarketer.com 2010 is the year the total dollars spent on digital music will surpass the sale of physical goods according to a new forecast. Paul Verna, eMarketer senior analyst and author of the report, “Paid Music Content: The Answer Is Blowin’ in the Cloud.” forecasts that US consumer spending on digital music will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.04% in the next four years, reaching $4.56 billion in 2013, up from $3 billion in 2009. 

As iPod Sales Slow Music Will Move To Cloud –

image from www.emarketer.com
“While
the first generation of US digital music services was predominantly
download-based, the next iteration is likely to be based around
subscription models,” said Verna. “US consumers are growing
accustomed to accessing digital content on remote servers via Web
browsers. Extending this paradigm to music files is a logical step, and
one that content owners are determined to make work.”

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6 Comments

  1. We all benefit from having access to our music everywhere we go. If this forecast turns out to be 100% accurate than it’s a big win for everyone.
    Now that we’re starting to float up to the cloud, I’d like to see greater consumer demand for higher quality bit rates. Storage issues prevent people from keeping lossless files on their MP3 player. I’d hope the cloud can allow us to get back to sonic quality. Does anyone remember how warm music sounded in the not so distant pass. Severe compression has made that warmth feel as lost and old as the dinosaur.
    Since we’re talking about technology evolution, let’s hope we see cars coming with standard web browsers that allow us to access our music collection from the cloud while we’re driving across country. That would be real freedom, and I would drive for days.

  2. yes totally agree. Check out http://www.mog.com for a great example of the future – all you can listen to for $4.99 per month – all in the cloud, streamed at 320kbps – sounds so much better than Pandora and all the other services.

  3. how on earth do artists make any money if people are paying $4.99 per month to listen to anything they want. that’s crazy. this is bound to result in artists not being able to afford the creation of quality recordings moving forward. we’re all deluding ourselves to think music should be free or as cheap as $5 per month.

  4. I agree with Gleam. Unlimited music for a few $’s means no income for artists. But don’t go and get started about the evils of the big music labels…
    I am independent and release under my own label so control everything. Fans ask for more music / 5.1 surround sounds / vinyl etc. The bottom line is I need to hold down a full time job to fund my music. I saw one torrent site showed over 50,000 downloads of my album. If I received $1 for each stolen album I could stop work and write full time. The listeners greed is destroying music.
    The cheap prices you see are there to compete with illegal download / Torrent sites a.k.a. Thiefs.

  5. The listeners “greed” is what fuels the music business. The “greed” 30 years ago was represented in LP sales, today in downloads (legal or not). Fans will get music however they can, as often as they can. Our job as artists is to both search for creative and expressive satisfaction AND give our fans something WORTH paying for.

  6. Calling consumers “thieves” isn’t going to help anyone’s case. Paul, if just one torrent site has over 50,000 downloads for your album then you have a HUGE audience. Instead of lamenting that you didn’t get money for those downloads why not monetize that audience some other way?
    Document statistics from the Web that prove people are downloading and listening to your music. Then take that information to venues, booking agents, and anyone in the business of licensing music for film/TV/games/ ads/etc and state your case. If you prove to corporate music buyers that your music has a large audience that they can tap into then you stand to make a shit-ton of money from concerts and licensing.
    Unfortunately, consumers just don’t pay for music as much as they used to so B2C sales will no longer sustain creative professionals. Therefore, I think it is in our best interests to focus on B2B. No matter what, media producers of all stripes will always need music. Take advantage of that and quit complaining–I WISH I had 50,000 people downloading my album (free). I’d be licensing the hell out of those songs right now.

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