20% Of Consumers Say They'd Likely Subscribe
To An Apple Music Service
20% of US consumers would pay $7.99 for an Apple music subscription service, with the rate rising to 28% among iOS users, according to a new survey conducted by the MIDiA Group. If just 15% of Apple’s 500 million iTunes users adopted the Beats-based streaming music service expected to launch this June, the total number of paid streaming music subscribers globally would grow by 75 million.
By contrast, as of early 2015, current global leader Spotify had 15 million paid subscribers among 60 million active users.
The survey does have a flaw. It asked potential users about a $7.99 monthly price point, which was the rumored fee earlier this year. If it is the now more likely $9.99 a month, how many will not sign up? Even at half of the estimated 75 million, Apple would have 2.5 times the paid subscribers as Spotify currently, with no free tier.
Early Adopters & A Decline In Downloads
"Interest levels are significantly lower for download buyers than for subscribers," according to Mark Mulligan of MIDiA. "However downloaders represent a bigger opportunity because there are so many more of them.... So while Apple’s first wave of adopters will likely over index towards existing subscribers, they should be followed relatively swiftly by a cohort of engaged download buyers. Which of course means mid term we will also see a significant downturn in download sales."
"Apple is entering the subscription market largely as a defensive measure, to reclaim market leadership and to help slow the leakage of some of its most valuable customers out of the iTunes ecosystem," continues Mulligan. "But if it can find an elegant way to blend the best elements of iTunes Radio, iTunes, Beats Music, Genius and the App Store, Apple could end up with the most comprehensive music offer on the market."
In other words, watch out Spotify.