Jupiter Says Sunscription Services Will Outpace Downloads
(From CelebrityAccess Media Wire) JupiterResearch’s latest survey on digital and online music, Consumer Survey Report: Music, 2004, which is based on a survey of over 2,300 online adults and also compares results with a survey of over 2,100 online teens, ages 13-17, strongly supports two critical JupiterResearch forecasts: subscription services will eventually outpace à la carte downloads and CDs will not be replaced by digital music any time soon in the next five years, and subscription services will eventually outpace à la carte downloads. Indeed, even in 2009, digital music sales will represent just 12% of consumer music spending.
The majority (51%) of online adults, 51%, think physical music is more valuable than digital. "They should," said JupiterResearch VP and Senior Analyst David Card "CDs offer higher sound fidelity, aren’t burdened with awkward copy protection and are compatible with pretty much every way people listen to music. MP3 players and portable rentals could turn around that value perception, but it will take time.
While 16% of online adults are interested in downloading a 99-cent single, 17% are tempted by subscription services. Interest in subscription services increases for teens ages 13-17 (19%), nearly doubles for young adults ages 18-24 (31%), and hits 37% for the music aficionados, those who have spent more than $45 on music in the past three months and engage in digital music activities on a regular basis, who are the best customers for digital music.
"Digital music is a young person’s game," said Josh Green, analyst at JupiterResearch. "Forty one percent of 18-24 year-olds rip burn CDs and 321% use file-sharing. For the over 25 crowd, those numbers are only 14% and 4%."
In its "Market Forecast Report: Music, 2004 to 2009," JupiterResearch forecast that digital music sales will more than double compared to last year, reaching more than $270 million in 2004, and will grow rapidly to $1.7 billion in 2009, totaling 12% of consumer music spending. While digital music will return the U.S. music industry to growth after four years of steeply declining sales, digital music still will not replace CDs or bring music sales back to its 1999 peak. –Bob Grossweiner and Jane Cohen