Seth Godin: The Exponential Power Of Viral
Seth Godin recently did a a series of social networking tests. Each curve on the chart represent a different idea and starting points. The yellow curve shows 10,000 fans (Godin calls then faux followers) and an idea that on average nets just .8 new people per generation. That means that 10,000 people will pass it on to 8000 people, and then 6400 people, etc. It doesn't take long for the idea to die out.
The green curve begins with just 100 people, but the idea is more viral and nets a 1.5 net passalong. It doesn't take long before overtakes yellow. The purple curve represents a an idea that is only slightly more viral generating 1.7 passalong and look at the exponential growth. More on Seth's blog.
Seth Godin's new book Linchpin: Are You Indispensable?
is being released today. I was lucky enough to read an advance copy and it is truly a must read for anyone who has ever thought about becoming indispensable to their organization.
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Those numbers look manufactured – the curves are too perfect.
He just calculated what the charts would look like if a certain percentage of people passed along an idea.
In the experiment that he did conduct, “200,000 followers led to 25 clickthroughs. Ouch.”
http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2010/02/viral-growth-trumps-lots-of-faux-followers.html
i never thought about becoming ‘indispensable 2 my organization.’ is it 2 late for me? an i already a ‘disposable teen’? [via marilyn manson] do i have thewillpower.org 2 press on and make myself a ‘valuable asset’ 2 my company?
What social networking tests did he do exactly? Has he programmed agent based computer simulation models for it? How much of a wild guess is still left in his conclusions, be they biased or unbiased?
I love Seth Godin, I read his blog daily and have 4 of his books…but has anyone else feel like he is kinda off lately?
Im speaking more about his daily blog posts, not this post.
I get his newsletter and his posts are always worth looking at, but sometimes when you think about them, they aren’t actionable. They are more like “Deep Thoughts by Jack Handey.” And sometimes they almost seem contradictory. One day he’ll toss out one approach. A few days later, another. Which is good to give you a new perspective, but then it all comes down to having you do what works best for you anyway.
I started to watch a long video with him talking about “Tribes” but after awhile I realized there wasn’t all that much info there other than the initial concept that people form into tribes. Godin’s skill has always been marketing and packaging ideas and he continues to do that quite well. But you often need to go beyond his work to get into greater depth.
I have a great respect for Seth Godin. He weaver and organizer of ideas. In a society with a paucity of philosophers, psychology and marketing are fertile areas of exploration. But not every exploration has tangible results.
Every exploration has tangible results; you just need to create the right measurement tool, then use the appropriate statistical test.